Economic context 


Global manufacturing activity may have been contracting for several months now, but global growth continues to be resilient despite central bank monetary tightening. The good news at the end of 2022 and the beginning of this year is the general decline in inflation, despite the lifting of restrictions in China, which could have presaged a rebound in commodity prices.

In the United States, the first signs of the slowdown so desired by the FED are finally here. While real estate has already been slowing for several months, as has manufacturing, growth in services has come to a screeching halt! What's more, the price components of the ISM are pointing to a substantial drop in inflation statistics, which investors are quick to incorporate. Even the employment report was ideal at this level: job creation was still vigorous, but wage growth was slowing. And the December inflation figure confirmed this decline. If the price of services continues to rise, this is due to the rise in rents. Without this, the fall in inflation would have been more substantial.

In Europe, after months of deterioration, manufacturing activity is beginning to rebound timidly, as is activity in services. The fall in gas and electricity prices - back to their pre Ukraine war levels - is taking the burden off the European economy and points to an acceleration in growth, which could also benefit from falling inflation.


Central banks.....